UNIVERSAL HISTORY AND POPULATION CHANGE

Abstract

Prophesying the end of Europe is a popular pastime. The idea that civilizations and nations, just like human beings, go through a cycle of rise, shine and decline is part of the attempt to make sense of, and to seek regularities in the flow of history. The rise and decline approach to universal history no longer has credibility amongst professional historians. However, it still echoes in the halls of learning and is popular among commentators and publicists. This paper discusses various approaches to universal history, some recent views on the future of Europe, and argues  that the continent’s current demographic situation and outlook can be much better understood if they are considered in the perspective offered by Arland Thornton’s developmental paradigm and the concept of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) or revolution.