SEEMIG project-outputs - Hungarian Demographic Research Institute

SEEMIG PROJECT OUTPUTS

WORKING PAPERS

1. Fassmann, Heinz - Elisabeth Musil (2013): Conceptual framework for modelling longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes

2. Gárdos, Éva - Gödri, Irén (2014): Analysis of existing migratory data production systems and major data sources in eight South-East European countries

3. Fassmann, Heinz - Musil, Elisabeth - Gruber, Kathrin (2014): Dynamic historical analysis of longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes in the SEEMIG region

4. Blaskó, Zsuzsa (2014): Surveying the Absentees – Surveying the Emigrants. A methodological paper on the SEEMIG pilot study to survey emigrants from Hungary and Serbia

5. Mýtna Kureková, Lucia (2014): Developing scenarios of migratory and labour market processes in South-Eastern Europe: foresight findings

6. Dallago, Bruno (2014): The crisis, the monetary union, and migration

PROJECT PAPERS

SEEMIG Results and Recommendations - Final brochure

The final brochure of SEEMIG contains a brief description of results and a short overview of transnational policy recommendations.

Transnational policy recommendations

The purpose of the SEEMIG transnational policy recommendations regarding migration data is to help decision-makers understand the policy actions that are necessary for reforming the data systems related to international migration in the South-East European region. They are also intended to streamline national sectorial policies and EU/regional programming until 2020. The recommendations target national policymakers and statistical offices in the SEE region (also those not directly involved in SEEMIG), as well as national policymakers of European countries outside the SEE region and EU level policymakers. They might be of further interest to other stakeholders, including practitioners and researchers.

National policy recommendations on the enhancement of migration data

Based on national strategies, eight participating countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia)compiled their policy recommendations regarding migration data enhancement.

Policy recommendations Austria		Policy recommendations (in German)
Policy recommendations Bulgaria		Policy recommendations (in Bulgarian)
Policy recommendations Hungary		Policy recommendations (in Hungarian)
Policy recommendations Italy		Policy recommendations (in Italian)
Policy recommendations Romania		Policy recommendations (in Romanian)
Policy recommendations Serbia		Policy recommendations (in Serbian)
Policy recommendations Slovakia		Policy recommendations (in Slovak)
Policy recommendations Slovenia		Policy recommendations (in Slovenian)

National and local strategies for enhancing data production and utilisation

Eight participating countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) compiled their national strategy document aiming at the improvement of the migration data collection process on national and local level, thus providing qualitative and reliable data on migration, labour market and human capital.

National Strategy for Austria
National Strategy for Austria (in German)
National Strategy for Bulgaria
National Strategy for Bulgaria - in Bulgarian
National Strategy for Hungary
National Strategy for Hungary - in Hungarian
National Strategy for Italy
National Strategy for Italy - in Italian
National Strategy for Romania
National Strategy for Romania - in Romanian
National Strategy for Serbia
National Strategy for Serbia - in Serbian
National Strategy for Slovakia
National Strategy for Slovakia - in Slovak
National Strategy for Slovenia
National Strategy for Slovenia - in Slovenian

Local strategy - District Administration Montana (Bulgaria)
Local strategy - The Municipality of Pécs (Hungary)
Local strategy - Autonomous Province of Trento (Italy)
Local strategy - Municipality of Sfântu Gheorghe(Romania)
Local strategy - Kanjiža (Serbia)
Local strategy - Turčianske Teplice (Slovakia)
Local strategy - Statistical region of Podravje (Slovenia)

Population projections for Hungary and Slovakia at national, regional and local levels

Six scenarios of the future national population development have been prepared for both Hungary and Slovakia. The most frequently used three-variant demographical forecast represents the basic output. It has been prepared with using of most commonly applied Cohort-Component method in the deterministic (variant) way. The three major components of the future demographical change are modelled, namely the processes of fertility, mortality and migration. The respective estimated rates of probabilities of these processes are being applied to demographical cohorts.

Common methodology for SEEMIG populations projections

The aim of this paper is to summarize the main methods applied in population projections and special methods used in SEEMIG.

Action Plans to improve migratory data production systems

Eight participating countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) prepared a national-level Action Plan to describe possible steps to improve of their existing migratory data production systems and data sources.

Action Plan Austria		Action Plan Austria (in German)
Action Plan Bulgaria
Action Plan Hungary		Action Plan Hungary (in Hungarian)
Action Plan Italy
Action Plan Romania
Action Plan Serbia
Action Plan Slovakia
Action Plan Slovenia		Action Plan Slovenia (in Slovenian)

Future scenarios of demographic, migratory and labour market processes: Foresight exercises

Eight participating countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) conducted foresight exercises to develop future scenarios of demographic, migratory and labour market processes. Based on main findings of the country report, a synthesis analysis was prepared to highlight key themes being discussed across the region of Southern and Eastern Europe.

Foresight report Austria
Foresight report Bulgaria
Foresight report Hungary
Foresight report Italy
Foresight report Romania
Foresight report Serbia
Foresight report Slovakia
Foresight report Slovenia

Based on main findings of the country reports, a synthesis analysis was prepared to highlight key themes being discussed across the region of Southern and Eastern Europe:

Mýtna Kureková, Lucia (2014): Developing scenarios of migratory and labour market processes in South-Eastern Europe: foresight findings. SEEMIG Working Papers, no. 5, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest.

Surveying emigration - report on the two stages of the pilot study in Hungary and Serbia

The reports provide information about the potentials and the limitations of an innovative method of researching emigrants from a particular country in a systematic and statistically reliable manner.

The research design consisted of a two-stage methodology with the key idea to derive a representative sample of emigrants from a representative national survey. In the first stage of the study the Labour Force Survey (LFS) was utilized and international migrants were identified through the households included in the LFS household-sample. LFS is a highly standardized survey carried out regularly in each EU member countries and (in most cases) it also consists of a sufficiently large sample of households to lead to a sufficiently large number of emigrants from the country. After identifying migrant persons linked to the households, a set of basic statistical information was also collected about them. After this, an attempt was also made to record contact information (e-mail address, telephone number, etc.) to the migrants reported in the household. These contact information then served as the base of the second stage of the pilot study when migrants were directly contacted and asked to answer a series of more in-depth questions. The second stage of the survey was carried out via telephone and the internet.

Report 1
Annexes (I-V as one document)
Annex I - Questionnaires
Annex II - Data protection documents
Annex III - Media campaign in Serbia
Annex IV - Weighting process
Annex V - Preliminary Hungarian tables

Report 2
Annexes (I-III as one document)
Annex I - Questionnaires
Annex II - Methodological recommendations
Annex III - Preliminary distributions

Analysis of existing migratory data production systems and data sources

Eight participating countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) prepared the description of their existing migratory data production systems and data sources. The country reports explore the areas of possible improvements and include recommendations. Based on findings of the country-level analyses, a South-East European (SEE) level Synthesis report has been prepared, summarising best practices and providing SEE level recommendations.

Austria country report		Executive summary DE / Kurzfassung
Bulgaria country report		Executive summary BG / Резюме
Hungary country report		Executive summary HU / Összefoglaló
Italy country report		Executive summary IT / Riepilogo
Romania country report		Executive summary RO / Rezumat
Serbia country report		Executive summary SRB / Rezime
Slovakia country report		Executive summary SK / Zhrnutie
Slovenia country report		Executive summary SLO / Povzetek

A Sythesis report has also been prepared to summarise the findings of the country reports and put forward SEE level recommendations for the enhancement of data production systems.

The copyright of SEEMIG outputs (country reports, summary reports, methodological papers, etc.) are credited to the authors of the specific paper. Suggested citation is shown on the second pages of the publications.

Dynamic historical analysis of migratory, labour market and human capital processes

Eight participating countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia) prepared their dynamic analysis of longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes. Based on findings of the country-reports, a Synthesis report has been prepared to give an overview of historical trends of the South-East European region.

Austria country report		Executive summary DE / Kurzfassung
Bulgaria country report		Executive summary BG / Резюме
Hungary country report		Executive summary HU / Összefoglaló
Italy country report		Executive summary IT / Riepilogo
Romania country report		Executive summary RO / Rezumat
Serbia country report		Executive summary RS / Rezime
Slovakia country report		Executive summary SK / Zhrnutie
Slovenia country report		Executive summary SLO / Povzetek

A Sythesis report has also been prepared based on the main findings of the country reports and to provide an overview of regional trends.

Comparative analysis of existing major population projections in SEEMIG countries

The comparative analysis evaluates projections data of the SEEMIG countries in two directions: it compares the differences in the expected development among the individual countries for each prognosis and it also compares the differences among all available prognoses for the same country.

Conceptual framework for modelling longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes

The paper aims to elaborate a theoretical and analytical framework for the interrelationships of demographic, migratory, labour market and human capital processes.

The paper aims to elaborate a theoretical and analytical framework for the interrelationships of demographic, migratory, labour market and human capital processes. This activity will help to develop a common framework for better understanding such processes in order to guarantee a sound basis for the further work packages and activities of SEEMIG. In the sections that follow, first, definitions, concepts and categorisations of migration are addressed and conceptually interlinked with possible socio-demographic and economic drivers. Subsequently, theories explaining the economic, social and political forces that generate and perpetuate international migration are presented. However, a detailed survey of migration theories is not possible or envisaged here. Instead, only selected theories which are deemed to be most relevant for the project contents are described and evaluated in this study. The push pull model in a reformulated way and the concept of the migration cycle are at the core of this analysis. In a further step, the embeddedness of migration processes in the world system, migration systems, and political, demographic as well as socio-economic contexts will be illustrated. Afterwards, macro-analytical effects of international migration are presented. Based on the review of concepts of migration and theoretical considerations, conclusions for the project’s data collection and research activities are drawn.

Data requirement paper for measuring longer term migratory, labour market and human capital processes

The paper will first discuss general problems and limitations related to data collection on international migration, especially regarding their usability and homogeneity as well as harmonisation efforts in this regard. This will heighten the awareness of involved project partners and policy-makers of possible constraints and challenges. Furthermore, advantages and disadvantages of main data sources as well as stock and flow statistics will be discussed. A special focus will be placed on statistics regarding emigration, remittances and irregular migration, as they are of particular importance for the SEE region. In the following chapter, relevant indicators for the key factors of change for measuring longer-term migratory, labour market and human capital processes are defined. The approach is two-fold: a total of 45 relevant indicators have been defined for the measurement of migration processes and effects related to human capital, demographic, socio-economic development and the labour market. These indicators should feed into the metadata assessment of the project and be included in the SEEMIG database. Of these relevant indicators, 15 indicators have been defined as core indicators for the measurement of these processes. These core indicators should serve as a benchmark list of indicators. SEEMIG partner countries and SEE countries in general should undertake measures to be able to produce these indicators in the framework of their future data collection activities. Finally the paper formulates general conclusions for the following project activities.

Net Migration and Historical Development in Southeastern Europe since 1950

This essay formulates some basic developmental patterns in Southeastern Europe (focusing on the area between Italy and the Caspian See) on the basis of some longer term macro statistics on net migration and other macro statistical time series. It demonstrates that in furthering an understanding of longer term developmental patterns, the world system approach is helpful in a modified form. In the case of state socialist economies the direct intervention of world capitalism had a long lasting impact on the migratory links of the countries within the region. Countries that were unable to counterbalance the collapse of local industry became sending countries and were partially re-ruralized and partially pushed into large scale emigration. The analysis lends credence to the neoclassic macro-economic theory of migration, but its validity with regard to per capita GDP differentials is strengthened if it is linked to positions in global hierarchies. The key point is that it is not simply GDP differentials that matter, but rather positions within the global economy, which themselves are in part the results of historical processes and linkages. In addition, people seem to have clear ideas of developmental scales which correspond quite accurately to actual per capita GDP figures. Thus people may well be aware of global inequalities and may even have clear ideas of complex sequences that might orientate them in their decisions regarding migration. The essay was published in the Hungarian Historical Review Volume 1 Issue 3-4 2012.