Female education and fertility under state socialism and after the transition to market economy: A decompositional analysis in Hungary

Abstract

This study examines whether changes in completed cohort fertility (CFR) among Hungarian women born between 1920 and 1982 were driven by shifts in educational composition or by changes in fertility within educational groups. Using data from six full, individual level population censuses (1970, 1980, 1990, 2001, 2011, and 2022) and Kitagawa’s decomposition method, changes in CFR are decomposed into indirect (structural, reflecting educational composition) and direct (rate, reflecting education-specific fertility) components and analysed across three broad birth cohorts: women born in 1935–1959, 1960–1969, and 1970–1982.

Structural effects dominated CFR change in the pre-transition cohort, while changes within educational groups (rate effects) dominated in the post-transition cohort, while both were small and offsetting in the transition cohort (1960–1969). Across cohorts, primary-educated women made the largest contribution to CFR decline due to their shrinking population share. Parity-specific decomposition shows that lower childlessness and second births supported CFR in the pre-transition cohort, whereas rising childlessness and declining second births reduced CFR in the post-transition cohort. In the transition cohort, parity effects were modest and partly offsetting.

Our data prove that both educational expansion and fertility change within educational groups played a role in the decline of cohort completed fertility of women born between 1920 and 1982. However, women whose main childbearing years occurred during the transition period differ from those in the socialist era, due to the varying impact of childlessness and parity 2 on CFR change. Compared to post-transition women, the only distinction lies in the effect of parity 1 on CFR change.

Our findings reveal a generational shift in how education and fertility interacted in Hungary across seven decades. Moreover, our study highlights the importance of both structural and within-group mechanisms and contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the interplay between education and fertility during societal change.

Keywords: cohort fertility, educational expansion, decomposition, parity